This week’s relatively dry forecast for eastern Australia will suit those making an early start to hay cutting as quality will be a key factor in the hay market this season.

The bulky oaten hay crops this year have experienced a mild winter with only light and infrequent frosts.

High quality from a stressed finish seems unlikely.

The dairy and beef demand from producers in Gippsland and southwestern Victoria represent the engine room for the domestic market.

The recent spring, autumn and winter has been kind to most of these farms and demand for hay is expected to be down this spring. Some dairy farmers near Drouin and Nilma North expect to carryover 40 per cent of the silage they made last year.

Farms near Thorpdale are expecting to start cutting paddocks for silage this week given the warmer weather and their red soils.

One region in southeastern Australia experiencing a very dry season is the Bega Valley. The average rainfall from April to August is 223mm yet the gauge at Bega has recorded just 99mm for the period.

According to local advisers, this weather pattern is not unusual for Bega Valley but concern is growing for its spring rainfall and what may happen in autumn.

Most dairy farms have access to irrigation with generous pasture growth in some paddocks and ample fodder.

Most remain optimistic they will score some east coast lows that can follow some summer cyclones to the north.

Despite this, buyers are looking to set aside some early stocks of hay as a risk management strategy and cereal hay between Henty and Junee is of key interest for this area.

The 400km to 450km road freight to move hay to these coastal dairies typically costs over $100 a tonne when trucking with a B double.

The first new-crop sellers in the Riverina of NSW are offering paddocks of standing cereal and vetch crops with the buyer to accept all the cost of harvest and quality risks.

According to grain analysts the weather patterns of this year are similar to 2015 and 2023 when wet weather fell in November across NSW and much of northern Victoria. If this were to happen this season it is unlikely to impact hay as many will be able to secure hay in sheds earlier and hay quality may be retained.