Canola is trading between $700 and $740 a tonne across southern markets, down 12-18 per cent on a year ago, with global supply continuing to weigh on prices ahead of sowing.

Analysis from Mecardo showed canola futures lost recent gains last week as crude oil dropped, with both Intercontinental Exchange and Matif markets struggling to sustain momentum despite the ongoing biofuel narrative.

Locally, prices followed the same trend, with Victorian canola sitting around $700 to $740 a tonne, while higher freight-adjusted values were closer to $775 a tonne into Melbourne and Geelong.

In southern NSW, canola was trading in the low-to-mid $700s, with sites such as Oaklands and Rand around $725 to $733 a tonne, while South Australian bids were cheaper, ranging from $660 to $710 a tonne depending on location.

This is compared with values at $800 to $850 a tonne across much of Victoria and southern NSW in May last year.

Agronomist and Maxwell NSW farmer Don Kirkpatrick said cost uncertainty, particularly around nitrogen, was shaping a more conservative approach from farmers.

“It’s going to be a very expensive year to grow a crop, we just don’t know how expensive yet,” he said.

“Urea is already around $1300 a tonne and there’s a lot still to be used in August, and we don’t know what that’s going to cost at that time. “We really don’t know what urea is going to cost then. It might continue to go up or it might come down. It is the great unknown at the moment.”

Mr Kirkpatrick said growers were still making plans and many of them were conservative. He said 2026 wasn’t the year to push the system too hard.

The “conservative approach” could result in overall yield impacts of 20 per cent less across the board.

Despite the cheaper commodity pricing, growers say canola would remain in many rotations.

Carron farmer Jason Mellings said many producers were pressing ahead with planting programs.

“A lot of people are still going to sow canola,” he said.

“If it suits the agronomy and you’ve got the nitrogen there, you just run with the program. If the seed is in the shed, you go for it.”

Mr Mellings said while some growers had questioned nitrogen availability or pulled paddocks out, many were continuing with planned programs.

“I have heard other people say they can’t get the nitrogen for it. They might actually pull it.” He said timely rain in some of the cropping areas had also helped with the decision making process.

“My opinion on price at the moment is, the price is the price, and it’s hard to know where it will be at harvest,” he said.

“It’s also hard to predict where the market will be.”