Australia’s cattle market has rebounded after widespread rain across eastern Australia, with renewed confidence translating to a restocking frenzy.

The benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator closed on Monday at 958c/kg carcass weight, its highest level since the peaks of 2022 when it hit an all-time record of 1185c/kg in January of that year.

The seven-day rolling average has lifted 142c/kg in the past month as producers scramble to top up on numbers.

And beef exports for May also hit a new high of 152,438 tonnes, as global demand for Australian beef swelled.

Corcoran Parker director Justin Keane from Wangaratta said historically solid prime prices were encouraging producers to buy back in after selling off numbers.

“When cows are making $8/kg and other prime cattle $9/kg, well, it shows the market is pretty sound,” Mr Keane said.

“Say if you have a bullock to sell, and it makes the market price at the time, it gives you reasonable money to go back in and keep trading (buy cattle).” Not all are as bullish about the fortunes for cattle though, with one analyst warning of trade winds ahead.

Elders analyst Richard Koch said price challenges in the next quarter would come from the flow-on effects of beef exports into China reaching the tariff trigger volume.

Australia is expected to reach its 205,000 tonne quota – after which a 55 per cent tariff will apply on beef imports to China – in the coming days. Mr Koch said Australia would also trigger the Korean quota safeguard in late July, after which beef exports there would attract a 24 per cent tariff.

“Don’t be fooled by the recent sharp lift in local cattle prices,” he said.

“The Australian beef and cattle market is set for a difficult period in Q3 (July-September).”

Mr Koch said along with the China and Korea tariffs, Australia would likely see a significant hike in competition from Brazilian lean frozen beef into the US, once Brazil also hits its China quota – expected not long after Australia.

“Cattle destined for higher quality chilled meat markets will escape most of the downturn, particularly southern-type cattle and those associated with branded beef programs,” he said.

“However, it is likely that there will be a general price correction across the entire local cattle market, with cows and manufacturing type cattle that are destined for the US lean manufacturing market likely to feel most of the pain.”

Despite trade unrest, cattle producers are showing just how confident they are.

The latest Meat and Livestock Australia producer intention survey showed 61 per cent of producers were optimistic about the next 12 months and 26 per cent planned to increase their herd.

MLA senior market information analyst Emiliano Diaz said the results showed the industry was “resilient, navigating a complex operating environment”.

“Despite ongoing seasonal and market variability, Australian beef producers continue to show strong confidence in the year ahead,” Mr Diaz said.

“While sentiment has moderated slightly from the highs seen in late 2025, it remains well above long-term averages, highlighting the underlying strength of the sector.”

The survey estimated the Australian cattle herd at 29.7 million as of the end of March.

Meanwhile, Mr Keane said rain had been a deal maker in the past couple of months, after two years where autumn and winter rain had largely failed to produce good seasons.

“Rain and warm weather meant grass growth, which in turn meant heavy cattle got heavier quicker, and then they were sold and the producer goes out and keeps trading,” Mr Keane said.

“You look at the EYCI and we will probably see more store buyers (operating in the prime market) which means the EYCI really might get closer to 1000c/kg.”

Nutrien livestock operations manager Ron Rutledge said some producers and feedlot operators would not have made a huge margin from cattle they bought last autumn even if they sold them for more than $3000 for bullocks. But rain, and subsequently feed, had encouraged producers to restock.

“Despite the talk of El Nino, 65 per cent of the eastern seaboard is having a pretty good season,” Mr Rutledge said.

“Producers want to restock, but at the same time, there is not the pressure to sell either thanks to the season.”

Mr Rutledge said price “bounce backs” were not uncommon after rain events, and neither was a tightening in numbers.

“Six weeks ago, you had to wait three weeks to get your cattle into a processor and that’s come back a lot shorter now,” he said.

Greg Stephens has properties in western Victoria and southern NSW, and has been selling store cattle with more to come.

Mr Stephens said the market could rise 50c/kg liveweight by spring but he was gradually going to offload numbers.

“We are all hoping the market will continue to get better,” Mr Stephens said.

“With weather and prices, we are in a lot better position than last year.”