Canola is shaping up as a standout crop.

Given the early start and warm weather, canola growth has been impressive.

Canola crops in north central Victoria have begun flowering already and are yet to reach mid flowering stage.

Agronomists are aware of the yield potential that is possible from a long cool season and the threats that can still upset yields.

Leaf area is a key driver of canola yield that needs protecting from fungal attack.

Early sown crops have already been showing signs of Blackleg infection according to the Grains Research and Development Corporation, and once flowering commences canola plants are susceptible to infection of Sclerotinia Stem Rot.

The opportunity to spray fungicide on canola has been difficult for many growers as paddocks have been too wet.

Leaving deep wheel tracks is not appealing but it’s a dilemma for many who want to maximise yields. After the persistent wet days in the second half of June, paddocks near Woomelang have seen finer weather this month to enable spraying of canola crops.

Further south paddocks near Warracknabeal have seen showery weather continue this month and most paddocks in southeast Australia received rain last weekend.

Optimism for canola yields is growing and corporate farms are forward selling.

Some Riverina growers north of Oaklands now consider 1 tonne a hectare as a floor in their yield expectations and are considering selling up to 0.75 tonnes a hectare on the current new-crop market.

Timed well for this season, new-crop canola and wheat prices are showing strength.

On a Geelong/Melbourne port basis, exporters earlier this week were bidding $349 a tonne for APW grade wheat and $814 a tonne for non-GM canola with ISCC certification for the EU market.

Although grower returns will be impacted by the higher input costs this season, this is an impressive canola price. This sits at a decline 9 or in the top 10 per cent of non-CPI adjusted canola prices quoted during the past five years, while wheat sits at a decile 6.

Canola prices are supported by crude oil prices. These have been inching up from their pre-war base following the renewed attacks including Iran’s bombing of US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan. Heat on US soyabean crops has highlighted that these crops have a long way to go before the bulk of the crop is harvested in August and September.

Also, the wet weather in the Canadian Prairies has restrained canola yields.

Analysts suggest that Australian canola could be a popular alternative for China if Canadian export volumes are limited. Australian exports of canola to China remain limited, operating under some strict government controls.

In the seven months to July a total of 380,000 tonnes has been shipped to China.

Some recent refinements to the export protocols have been confirmed on the Australian government website.

While canola quality remains sensitive and carefully monitored by both governments, there are signs the trade is expanding slowly.