Predictions of lower than average autumn rainfall that ultimately did not play out are due to the “inherently challenging” nature of seasonal forecasting according to the nation’s authority.

The Bureau of Meteorology maintains its seasonal outlooks offer value.

A BOM spokesman said long-range forecasts were designed to capture broadscale shifts in the likely seasonal pattern.

“But short-lived or localised weather events can still result in above average rainfall in some areas, even when the overall signal favours below average conditions,” the spokesman said.

“Seasonal forecasts provide the chance of above average rainfall.

“During this period (March to May), the forecast showed a 30-40 per cent chance of exceeding the average over parts of the interior and southern Australia.

“It is important to understand that this forecast means it is more likely to be drier than average.

“However, it does not rule out the possibility of near-or above-average rainfall.”

The spokesman said a slow moving tropical low brought unseasonable rainfall to parts of the interior in March, and a significant northwest cloud band brought widespread rainfall across large parts of Australia in May.

“Both these events had a substantial influence on the March to May rainfall outcome, delivering more than twice the normal March to May rainfall to a broad area of the country, as shown in the rainfall percentage plot,” the spokesman said.

The spokesman said seasonal outlooks were “not a guarantee”, and offered early insight into the broader climate context.

“This information supports risk-based decision‑making by allowing users to consider potential scenarios, plan for increased likelihoods of particular conditions, and manage resources more effectively,” he said.

“Farmers can use them to: understand the risk of temperature and rainfall, as compared to average conditions in the months/seasons ahead, adjust plans where appropriate, to combine with local knowledge, short-term forecasts and on-ground conditions.”

Yulecart sheep and cropping farmer Brad Vennings said he knew of people who had made decisions, like selling cattle early, based on the predictions of a dry autumn. “Then it kept raining, they have heaps of feed and they could have held these stock,” Mr Vennings said.

“We’ve also planted crops on areas that get waterlogged on the basis it was going to be drier, and will lose some areas in those paddocks.”

Mr Vennings said while spring forecasts tended to be more accurate, outlooks made for autumn were consistently off the mark.

“What happens in autumn can really affect profitability so if they (BOM) get it wrong, it can have a great impact on the bottom line,” he said.