As windrows are curing in southeastern Australia, the weather is changing prospects for the 2027 hay market.

Since the rain of the fourth of the month, hay making has progressed as no rain has been received in much of the Mallee and Riverina with smaller showers of 11mm at Nhill, 7mm at Horsham and 2mm at Rainbow.

While Coleraine scored 15mm, this trend continues further south with falls of 4mm at Colac, 7mm at Thorpdale and 3mm at Yarram.

Paddocks in these regions had little subsoil moisture to sustain an ongoing flush of pasture growth and soils remain relatively the driest in Victoria.

Despite the boost from the rain of early October, the mood of graziers in the southwest of Victoria and southeast of South Australia has changed.

Many have already cut silage and with temperatures hitting 25C to 29C over the weekend, confidence in further growth for hay cuts has been waning.

Despite this, the forecast looks promising for general rain of 25mm to 50mm later this week which would be timely to maintain the fresh pastures in the south. Any additional cuts of hay will have a lasting effect on vetch and cereal hay demand next year.

This weekend’s rain will also throw challenges to cereal and vetch hay growers who are keen to have their hay baled and stacked under cover.

The single rain event a fortnight ago may not have caused a lot of damage but a follow up rain event when the windrows are ready for baling can see hay quality rapidly decline across a wide area.

Hay growers will be managing the timing of baling according to signs of curing. Fully cured cereal hay is typically demonstrated by dry nodes that snap cleanly when bent over a thumb nail.

Sap moisture that is residual in the nodes and grain heads can take the longest time to dry and is a focus when avoiding hay fires. Ironically hay makers often like to see some morning dew to increase the moisture of leaves to avoid leaf loss during raking and baling.

The 50mm to 100mm of rain that has fallen month to date in Queensland and northern NSW combined with a similar rain event forecast this week should be a perfect start for summer pastures, potentially trimming the northern hay demand that has sustained prices for southern hay.