Despite the turmoil in global energy markets, the mood of many grain growers is resolute.
With the backing of favourable rainfall during late spring and early March, many growers look forward to getting crop in the ground.
Wheat futures and crude oil futures responded in similar ways to last week’s announcements by the US President.
Both markets eased when President Trump announced a ceasefire had been negotiated only to partially recover when markets became aware of the collapse in talks and threats of more US military action in the Strait of Hormuz.
Grain growers near Culcairn have sufficient diesel to sow their crops and complete much of the in crop treatments.
However, a large degree of uncertainty remains as many growers are yet to access diesel to harvest crops. After investing heavily in expensive inputs, the concern for insufficient diesel to harvest a crop is substantial.
These supplies are not normally secured at this early stage of the season but the break in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf to refineries in the Asia Pacific has changed priorities this year.
On farm barley supplies are being soaked up in the Riverina. Some small containment areas have been established on farms to feedlot cattle using locally sourced barley and straw.
Brokers report barley prices remain firm with Melbourne metro prices quoted $2 a tonne higher at $354 a tonne and deals struck delivered to mills in the Riverina or ex farm are also stronger.
Barley exporters report that Chinese purchases are slowing due to an accumulation of grain stocks at ports.
A reduction in the Thai corn production combined with increasing feed grain demand has seen Thailand return as a buyer of barley. Normally wheat would fill this demand but import restrictions of wheat are favouring barley imports.
The 70mm to 80mm that has fallen between Walbundrie and The Rock in the past four weeks and the above average soil moisture levels, provide some confidence in the season. Many growers are choosing to stick to their intended crop rotations including canola.
New-crop canola prices are quoted this week at $780 a tonne on a Melbourne or Port Kembla basis, down $10 a tonne from last week.
Canola futures markets followed crude oil prices lower with the French exchange falling $16.20 a tonne and the Winnipeg contract slipping $23.30.
Despite these falls and a higher Aussie dollar, new-crop canola prices are performing relatively well, partly due to the expected production challenges for the higher input crop this coming season.