With June rainfall totals exceeding 50mm for all cropping zones in southeastern Australia and over 100mm in South Australia, there is growing hope for yields this season.
The rain, combined with forecasts calling for 25mm to 100mm this week across most of Victoria and NSW, have changed market sentiment. Grain prices are moving the way of buyers while sellers are more comfortable to clear stocks in the new financial year.
As the days are short and frosts are becoming more common in NSW and SA, the moisture demands for crops are low. Grain growers are still aware of the need for rain in August and September.
In mid-June the warm ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific formally triggered an El Nino event. The Bureau of Meteorology is now forecasting the chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months as below 25 per cent.
The median refers to the midpoint where rain tallies fall short of the median half the time.
As computer models relate the physics of global ocean, atmosphere, ice and land observations, climate models are highly complex. They are yet to reliably forecast the degree of the rainfall deficit during winter and spring.
Arguably, the risks for grain crops running low on soil moisture for grain fill are greater than hay crops as the growing season is a month longer.
Other than El Nino, the added risk for grain crops is the early start to the growing season and that the large biomass crops are likely to draw heavily on deep soil moisture in spring.
The threat of an El Nino is important to Australian agriculture but it has become a major focus for the subcontinent as it impacts critical food supplies.
In India, the deficit for June rainfall to last Thursday varied across the four pulse producing regions from 21 per cent to 57 per cent. The largest pulse producing state of Madhyda Pradesh in central India received 43 per cent below average, according to the Indian Meteorological Department.
In Australia a 40 per cent deficit for a three-week period in June is relatively common but there are major impacts for Indian agriculture.
Sowing of the summer pulse crops, including mung beans and pigeon peas, has slowed and only 10 per cent of the broadacre crops are in the ground. According to agricultural analysts in India, achieving average production now hinges on monsoon rain during July and August.
A 10 per cent reduction in India’s total pulse production of 24 million tonnes could mean a 50 per cent increase in total imports – a big challenge for a country that is eager for self-sufficiency.
Lentils are just one of five major pulses imported into the subcontinent but this late monsoon is affecting other importers in the region and is supportive of new-crop values.
Current nipper and hallmark lentil prices are sitting marginally higher than harvest at $640 a tonne delivered to Melbourne and Geelong.
COLIN PEACE