With hay prices in NSW running about $40 a tonne higher than in Victoria, producers say the season is running two to three weeks early and offers a chance to recover after several tough years.

From western Victoria to South Australia and southern NSW, farmers say good winter growth had improved confidence heading into hay and silage making, although rain over the next week remains critical.

Mecardo analyst Angus Brown said the fodder trade was emerging as a two-speed market, with southern values tracking lower as new season supply built while NSW held firmer after a dry autumn reduced production.

He said pasture hay in southwest Victoria had eased to just above $205 a tonne, while NSW was holding about a $40 a tonne premium to the south.

The Australian Fodder Industry Association Hay Report quoted southwest Victoria pasture hay at $165 to $245 a tonne. It quoted central west NSW pasture hay at $210 to $310 a tonne, while cereal hay was listed at $265 to $355 a tonne.

AFIA chairman and South Australian farmer Gavin Schuster, of Freeling said the season was running up to two weeks early after crops got ahead over winter.

“We should have a season where some good quality hay can get made early and without any weather damage,” he said. However, he said it was still too early to predict the market and ultimate values. He said growers were focused on the weather for the next two weeks.

Winslow dairy farmer Bernie Free said hopefully this year was the one that would make up for previous droughts and times when fodder production was more difficult.

“It is not too bad at the moment and there has been some early silage already cut,” he said. Mr Free said there were paddocks locked up for hay in his area and ultimately the outlook was weather dependent. “We are all hoping that spring is better than the forecast for the El Nino,” he said.

At Downside in southern NSW, David Meiklejohn said his oat crop being grown for hay was the highest he had seen in about 10 years.

“Another inch of rain would help, but the crops have grown well through winter,” he said.

Mr Meiklejohn said that grain crops would be taken through to harvest and it was unlikely any of those would be cut for hay.