Growers chasing a price lift for wheat are still staring at a flat market, with Russia now forecast to export 47.5 million tonnes out of the Black Sea.

Melbourne APW1 wheat is quoted at $304.74 a tonne by Grain Brokers Australia, a price growers say is dangerously close to the cost of production.

Figures from the United States Department of Agriculture’s July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report show Australia’s production was left unchanged at 28 million tonnes of wheat from last month but there was pressure from other growing regions.

And the revisions in tonnages were not expected to help pricing. Russia’s wheat exports were lifted to 47.5 million tonnes from 47 million, while its crop was raised to 88.5 million tonnes from 88 million.

Ukraine’s production increased to 24 million tonnes from 23.5 million.

World wheat ending stocks were cut to 272.84 million tonnes from 275.42 million in June and global trade was raised to 213.05 million tonnes from 211.95 million. Canada was the notable loser, with production cut to 34 million tonnes from 35 million and exports trimmed to 27.5 million tonnes from 28 million. For Australian growers, the message equated to the fact that lower global stocks did not create a bullish market signal because more exportable wheat was handed to the countries that most often cap rallies in world markets.

Victorian Farmers Federation grains council chairman Jason Mellings from Carron said at current values he could not see growers rushing to lock in new-crop wheat prices.

He said prices at $308 and $309 were too low. “You are talking $40 for freight, you are looking at about $268 on farm. At that price you would leave it on farm.”

Mr Mellings said the issue was not just price, but cost.

“The cost of production is too high … everyone is hoping prices will go up. There is nothing to say they will,” he said.

South Australian grower Mark Schilling from Cunliffe said the market remained flat, although Chicago wheat futures had shown a rise at the end of last week. “The best thing that we could wish for is high yields so we can combat some of that downward pressure with high yields, that is what I’m backing on,” he said.