Goalposts are shifting across cropping paddocks as soil moisture levels tell a story of early seasonal optimism.

Agronomists and farmers say winter crops were currently about two weeks to 30 days ahead of where they would typically be, with recent rain and mild conditions increasing growth across much of the state.

Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture probes have shown that many cropping sites across the state were at or near full profile after June and early July rain. Data from the July 2026 soil moisture monitoring update showed Ouyen, Speed and Normanville at 100 per cent, while Birchip was also at 100 per cent after a 25 per cent increase during June. Brim was near full, Sheep Hills and Taylors Lake were both at 100 per cent, Minyip was more than 75 per cent full, and Serpentine rose from 71 per cent at the start of June to 100 per cent by the end of the month.

Yarrawonga farmer Nathan Lawless said 60mm of rain over three to four days had soaked in “beautifully”, with no puddles left behind.

The fact that rain wasn’t laying around on the ground meant that it was effectively soaking into the ground efficiently.

“I drove a ute over a few paddocks,” Mr Lawless said. “It has all soaked in. There’s not a puddle on the place.”

Mr Lawless said the season had turned to the point where nitrogen plans were being revised and yield goals were starting to look a little different to earlier estimates at sowing.

“I am putting urea out now which I didn’t plan on,” he said.

“Now we have gone from trying to grow a two-tonne crop to increasing it to a three tonne crop.”

He said crops around Yarrawonga were looking good and ahead of where they would usually be at this stage of the season. He said there had been good establishment and the crops looked even.

Canola was just starting to show small amounts of flowers.

Finley NSW agronomist John Lacy said the recent rain of 45mm to 60mm was excellent for subsoil moisture and had improved the outlook of crops being monitored through the farmer discussion groups in his area.

He said measured soil moisture depths ranged from 38cm in one dryland wheat crop to 80cm, 90cm and 100cm in better placed paddocks, with several irrigated crops carrying moisture to a full metre. Driscoll Ag agronomist Josh McLeod of Bendigo said some paddocks in his area were now “comfortably full” for soil moisture.

Mr McLeod said that gross margin targets had now moved to align with the season and there was a good level of optimism.

He said there were early expectations of four tonne to the hectare cereals and two tonne canola.

He said that, as a general rule, crops were now two to three weeks ahead by growth stage.