Australia’s heavy reliance on fertiliser and fuel imports could be exposed if the escalating Middle East conflict drags on for months, raising the prospect of supply disruptions, price spikes and surging shipping and insurance costs for critical farm inputs.

At the weekend, the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran following abandoned talks over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Iran responded with strikes on US military bases across several Gulf States, heightening fears of broader regional disruption.

Southern Grain Storage director Campbell Brumby said he’s since seen an increase of $30-$40 per tonne on urea, to $860-$870 per tonne, and a $10-$20 per tonne increase on granular sulfate ammonia to $450-$460 per tonne.

“No change on MAP or DAP as of yet,” he said.

Australia imports the vast majority of its fuel, leaving domestic supply chains vulnerable to any prolonged instability in global markets.

Raboresearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel warned the conflict threatened to disrupt between 25 and 30 per cent of global urea exports.

Iran accounts for about 10 per cent of the world’s urea trade. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical shipping corridor – is also expected to disrupt exports from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which supply about 10 per cent and 8 per cent of the world’s urea respectively.

“The (Iran-Israel war) of 2025 caused the pipeline to Egypt to shut down, which is another significant exporter of about 8 per cent of the world’s urea,” Mr Vogel said.

“Basically you have the risk of 25-30 per cent of the world’s exports of urea disrupted,” Mr Vogel said.

“The question is just for how long and how intensely, but prices will probably be very volatile for urea and diesel.”

AgSecure principal Andrew Henderson said Australia’s fuel supply chains “are geared to be just-in-time supply chains”, and if the conflict began to stretch out beyond weeks and months, it could have longer-term implications on availability.

ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said the immediate concern for agriculture was not what Australia exported to the region, but the knock-on impact of global energy markets and input costs.

“There has been movement in fuel, crude prices, already,” Dr Greenville said.

On fertiliser, he said much of the product required for the upcoming winter cropping program was likely already onshore, meaning the greater risk lay further out.

Dr Greenville said the conflict was expected to influence rises in the cost of insurance and shipping.