It has been more than four years since Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shockwaves through global grain markets.

The prospects of having two large grain growing nations at war, threatening 30 per cent of the world’s total wheat exports, saw US and European wheat markets spike up by 50 per cent in the weeks following the invasion.

Despite the supply threats at the time, markets and new trade flows have found a way of overcoming the restrictions of war.

According to the International Grains Council, Russia and Ukraine are still supplying 28 per cent of the world’s wheat exports.

Although Ukraine’s major ports accessible to the Black Sea of Mariupol and Mykoaiv are occupied by Russia or restricted by hostilities, three other ports in the west of the country, including Odesa, are operating. Further shipping pathways have been opened in the west of Ukraine through the Danube River.

These shipments of wheat and barley are normally destined to North African and Turkish ports but favourable seasons in these regions have changed trade flows and are impacting Australian prices.

According to a leading Australian analyst, China has recently purchased 700,000 tonnes of feed barley from Ukraine and a further 500,000 tonnes from France.

These sales and the generous rainfall over Australia in the past eight weeks have slowed the demand for barley.

Regardless of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, these exporters are still actively competing with Australian exports.

There are no public bids from traders for barley within South Australia.

The US/Iran war and the closure of marine traffic to the Persian Gulf is also impacting commodity markets.

However, there are limited shipping alternatives.

Australian canola, pulses, wheat and barley are often sold into the Gulf States and cereal hay has also been shipped to the Persian Gulf in the past year.

More than 800,000 tonnes of canola was shipped to the United Arab Emirates last year.

To avoid the Strait of Hormuz, ships can be diverted to the Saudi Arabian ports on the Red Sea, however recent information from Austrade highlights the limited number of trucks and drivers to haul the commodities eastwards.

The prospect of the strait reopening has sent crude oil prices tumbling and oilseed prices have followed.

Although the delays in agreements caused markets to lift late last week, both Canadian and French canola exchanges fell between 3 and 4 per cent.

Victorian new-crop canola prices opened this week at $781 a tonne on a port basis, down $42 a tonne or 5.2 per cent.

The early germination and timely rain combined with this month’s above average rainfall in the eastern states and a generous forecast for Western Australia are underpinning production and lowering supply risks for domestic crushers.

Falling fertiliser prices to feed canola crops are also improving yield forecasts.

According to Argus Media, urea prices ex Geelong have fallen 20 per cent to $1130 a tonne.

This is well timed for split applications to canola during the growing season.